May 2013
The presidential election marathon has begun. We will see politics unfold until the 26th of June, the day the ballots are taken in, and maybe, even all summer long.
Compared to previous elections, the 2013 presidential elections are taking place amid contradiction and struggle. The following are the conditions of the rivalparties:
-The traditional positions of the authorities and the opposition have exchanged places. The democratic party now occupies the 3 main seats in the Mongolian government.
-Last year, the democratic party was elected by the people in the parliamentary elections. Over the course of the approximately one year they were in power, their reputation has been tarnished considerably in the business sector.
-The Mongolian People’s Party gradually adjusted to being the opposition and now have enough reason to impeach the prime minister.
-The “Justice Coalition” that is working in the cabinet of the government has reached a position in which it can influence the government’s stability.
-The conflicts within the Democratic party and the struggle for personal gain have begun to take center stage and become apparent to the public.
-The logic of “balancing” that says that the president of the Mongolian People’s Party can correct and smooth out the mistakes of the Democratic Party is growing among the public.
That sums up the situation for the parties. Let’s take a look at the personal ratings of the candidates:
-According to the latest survey conducted by the Sant Maral Foundation, the ratings of the current president Ts. Elbegdorj are the highest. However, we should note that he could not pass the 20 percent threshold in both rural and city areas. These results could be an indication of the possibility of a second election. We can assess even from this point that Ts. Elbegdorj, who is the candidate from the Democratic Party for the second time, will not be able to gain an absolute majority of votes from the electorate.
-The Mongolian People’s Party candidate, B. Bat-Erdene, currently has a better reputation than Ts. Elbegdorj in rural areas. According to the MPP and the Sant Maral Foundation survey, B. Bat-Erdene emerged with the highest ratings within his party. Although the majority of people from the capital and other large cities support the Democratic Party, over the last few years, opponents of its strict policies in the business sector have increased. Therefore, those “offended” might automatically vote for the opposition party candidate, B. Bat-Erdene, or they may not even vote at all.
-The third party, the Mongolian National Democratic Party leader M. Enkhsaikhan will receive very few votes from the electorate. However few, these results will adversely affect both the votes of the Democratic Party’s Ts. Elbegdorj and the Mongolian People’s party’s B. Bat-Erdene.
-The position of the third party opposition, the MPRP will directly and noticeably influence the 2013 presidential elections. Today this party has reached such a level of influence that it may determine whether the government is stabilized or falls. If the request of MPRP leader N. Enkhbayar to not serve a prison term for 2.6 years had been granted and he had been released, it could have been very advantageous for the Democratic Party candidate Ts. Elbegdorj. In other words, if they had produced a “fake candidate,” it would have stolen votes from the MPP candidate, B. Bat-Erdene. The MPRP, which received 20% of the people’s votes in last year’s parliamentary elections, still has high ratings among rural area voters. The current president, Ts. Elbegdorj, is ready to accept whatever consequences may fall on him for being being strict and not releasing the MPRP leader, N. Enkhbayar, from his sentence. The MPRP is definitely a big risk for Ts. Elbegdorj.
What difference will the new president’s policies bring to the mining sector?
-If the current president, President Ts. Elbegdorj, is reelected the government will make policies in the mining sector for the first time. These policies will make amendments to the mineral law and the many other laws that are connected to it . This means that the legal environment of the sector will be renewed and the rules and regulations will be made clear. Seeing our present President’s ambitious behavior, it could be understood that he might take the matter of creating new options in using the Tavan Tolgoi deposit into his own hands. Prime Minister N. Altanhuyag, the leader of the Democratic party, is the type of leader who will listen and follow along with whatever Ts. Elbegdorj says.
-If the MPP candidate, B. Bat-Erdene, is elected as president, the nationalistic views related to the Mongolian mining sector will become more active. Civil activists are his main supporters and his main campaign issue, or tactic will be the “environment and protecting the natural wealth”. It is obvious that he will try to better implement the “long-named” law, since he is the one who drafted it. At a time when the mining sector has already been negatively impacted by the results of the price crisis and wrong policies, it does not need another sportsman giving it yet another “knock out”.
-Even if the other candidates can pass the 5% threshold, their position will not hold much influence.
This is the pre-election situation. None of the candidates will take the position of supporting the mining industry during the election campaign. Quite the opposite, it is clear that the candidate who initiates a stricter policy that demands more responsibility from the mining companies will gain the public’s favor. The saying applies in the mining sector that half a loaf is better than none. In this situation, it means that Ts. Elbegdorj is better than the others.