June 2009
Now that he has assumed office, the world would be watching how, as Chairman of the National Security Council, President Ts.Elbegdorj goes about picking the second stage winner of the Tavan Tolgoi project this summer.
It is by no means just a matter of opening envelopes and comparing the prices quoted by the various bidders, and then choosing the one who offers the most.
The working group appointed by the Mongolian Government is holding a series of detailed and complex talks with officials of the several foreign companies interested in investing in the coal deposit. The Mongolian decision will be announced only after various commercial aspects of their respective proposals are weighed, and geopolitical considerations reviewed. Every bid will have some plus points and also some which may not appear very attractive. Their intrinsic merit has to be judged, as also their comparative appeal. This is no easy task, and the final decision will not please everybody, inside or outside Mongolia.
The prime consideration in that choice would centre on the building of a new railway. Without proper and adequate railway connectivity, the coal in Tavan Tolgoi is just coal in the earth, not a valuable mining asset. Thus, how the railway will be built to carry the coal from the Tavan Tolgoi deposits is the crux of the problem that Mr. Elbegdorj, as leading the National Security Council, will have to tackle. His, and the NSC’s, perspective on the issue is being closely watched. Countries like China, Russia, South Korea, and the USA are searching for a clue to how their mind works, and countries farther away, like Brazil and India, are watching with interest.
Mongolians are waiting for more than a year now for implementation of the election promises of distributing a part of the income from mining resources among all of them. Mining operations at the Tavan Tolgoi deposit are at present at a preliminary stage of what is to follow and currently a bare 4 million tonnes are mined per year. No railway is really needed to transport this. The MPRP group in Parliament wants at least a beginning to be made in distributing the Motherland Allowance in 2010, and, for that, work on the mines has to start in a big way without much further delay. For that to happen, work on building the railway has to start soon.
The following is a quote from Mr. V.Yakunin, Head of the Russian Railway LLC, as published in the Russian media last year: “We are ready to take on the responsibility of improving the Mongolian railway system. In return for our investment we would like to get a mining licence for the natural resources from the Mongolian Government. We shall transfer the licence to a Russian company with the capacity to develop mineral deposits. We are discussing the establishment of a joint venture in partnership with either the Mongolian Government or a company assigned by them. When we transfer the licence we shall get at least 25% of the profits of any specific project and this will cover our initial expenses on the infrastructure needed to lay the railway.”
This is just what has been happening, stage by stage. A Russian-Mongolian joint company called Infrastructure Development has been established and the blueprint for a new railway line from Tavan Tolgoi to Zuunbayan in the east is ready.
Let us analyse details of the plan, or as much of them as is available, and compare their competitive advantages to the other proposals on a railway to reach Tavan Tolgoi resources to their markets. The Mongolian public has a right to know the situation obtaining in this very important sector.
Mr. Yakunin’s suggested railway will be 920 km long, laid like a ribbon along the vast steppe towards eastern Mongolia. It will join Choibalsan station on the existing track and thence continue along the old railway until the border point of Ereentsav. Its total length will thus be 1,160 km, making it longer than the present trans-Mongolian railway that runs from Sukhbaatar to Zamiin-Uud. Laying a railway is expensive business, particularly in our terrain, so this enormous length has a direct bearing on the final costs of mining in Tavan Tolgoi. We can only hope the Mongolian Parliament has already considered this or will keep this in mind when reviewing the Tavan Tolgoi proposals.
But the east is not necessarily the only way the vast resources of Tavan Tolgoi will travel to bring money to Mongolia.
Depending on the identity of the investor and how and where the coking coal is to be exported, we may very well end up needing a railway to the north.
Also, the Mongolian Government once indicated that its short-term goal was to build a railway to the south, which would be the shortest route to reach South Korean and Japanese markets. At the request of the Mongolian Government, World Bank analysts made a detailed study of the cost of transporting coal to the several possible target markets, and compared the merits of railways and roads. Out of the four directions from Tavan Tolgoi, the northern route to Solovyovsk, was the most expensive and the southern one to the Gashuun Sukhait border the most cost efficient.
The Russian side has submitted an alternative back-up plan to transport coal from Tavan Tolgoi to Zuun Bayan 380 km away and from there continue to Sainshand-Zamiin-Uud. The total length would then be 683 km, considerably less than the one described earlier but still much longer than the 264 km of the suggested Tavan Tolgoi-Oyu Tolgoi-Gashuun Sukhait railway. It might be interesting for our readers to know that the Russian side is lobbying for extending the railway from Zamiin-Uud to the south. For Mr. Yakunin the benefits of operating on a 380-km track connecting Tavan Tolgoi and Zuunbayan are much more immediate than those promised by a long-term vision of the more than 1,000 km of track giving him control over transportation in all directions.
For the Russian side it may not be important which way the Tavan Tolgoi coal goes if it does not go to Russia, but the direction of the railway is vital for Mongolians, who see the resources as a lifeline to development for years to come.
The railway track from Sainshand to Zamiin-Uud needs thorough overhaul if it is to be used to transport substantial amounts of coal regularly. This will be an expensive operation. Then comes the other issue of the capacity of both Zamiin-Uud and Erlian to deal with so much freight. It is unlikely that Zamiin-Uud, which cannot handle imports from China efficiently and quickly now, will be able to clear 10-25 million tonnes of coal annually in the near future.
If that is the position on the Mongolian side of the border, things are not much better at Erlian on the Chinese side. Minister of Road, Transport and Urban Development Kh.Battulga discussed this matter extensively with railway officials during his visit to China at the end of May, but the talks were not too fruitful, judging by media reports. It is not so much a problem with arrangements at Erlian as the larger one of China having already exhausted its capacity for freight forwarding. Experts regard the Chinese railway system as the best in the world but are quick to add that it is severely overstretched and cannot take any extra stress without extensive reorganization. Coal alone accounts for some 40% of the total railway cargo in China, and the scope to increase this, especially in the highly industrialized and densely populated western and southern regions, is quite restricted. Indeed, freight forwarding schedules are now prepared a year in advance. Demands from local companies get priority, and other and outside requests are met only if and when something extra can be inserted in the schedule.
This factor carries the considerable risk of consignments being delayed, and of being at the mercy of others who might not have any special sympathy for Mongolian needs. This is an unaffordable luxury in international trade.
In other words, Mongolia must realize it cannot convert the coal at Tavan Tolgoi into a real resource just by announcing a bid and selecting an investor. The long transportation of the output from the mines has to be efficient, quick, and regular. Any breach of any of these would adversely affect the competitiveness of our export. This is not a worry for either Mr. Yakunin or the Chinese railway authorities; they are challenges and hurdles that Mongolians themselves have to anticipate and tackle beforehand.
The gist of my argument is that our decision on Tavan Tolgoi, whatever it turns out to be, should not be taken to serve the interests of any country or any group. The right choice can be made only when Mongolia issues the licence to mine deposits of strategic importance solely on the basis of sound economic projections backed by careful and unbiased study. As I have shown, several routes to transport coal from Tavan Tolgoi have been suggested in Parliament and each has some apparent appeal. But reality is not always apparent. In our enthusiasm for any proposal on extraneous grounds, we should not overlook flaws, deliberately concealed or not.
The EBRD, the Asian Development Bank and other international institutions have offered support to implement the most viable project. They will not cooperate if we make a poor choice on grounds other than national interests and practical considerations.
Experts at the World Bank have suggested using the railway line controlled by the Shenhua group. This will bypass the anticipated bottlenecks in transporting the coal on the Chinese railway network, and as Shenhua is not very active in mining coking coal, there will not be a conflict of interest. Demand for coking coal would continue to increase in the steel factories of China, our projected main market. The best way to earn the most profit in the shortest time would be to sell the Tavan Tolgoi output to factories in the central and northwestern regions of China, rather than in the west of the country, which would entail freight forwarding, already saturated.
If we want China to be our main market for the Tavan Tolgoi coal, we also have to consider China’s own position on the matter. China will not take a decision that subordinates their interests to ours. It is certain to have developed alternative policies to meet possible exigencies arising out of different scenarios. According to a short- and medium-term development plan China formulated in 2004, the Linhen railway connecting the east and west of China along a line parallel to the Mongolian border is under construction. Short rail lines connecting this to Nariin Sukhait and Gashuun Sukhait on the border in Mongolia are part of the project.
World Bank advisor Richard Ballock mentioned this to the Mongolian government last autumn, emphasizing that this would make Gashuun Sukhait the gateway to put the Tavan Tolgoi coal into the economic cycle in the shortest possible time and to export it to Japanese and Korean markets.
There has been no feasibility study so far on a railway from Tavan Tolgoi to Zuunbayan, and such an exercise takes around a year. The Russians have made a general statement of assurance to provide assistance in improving operations on the trans-Mongolian railway, but this does not include any active initiative on installing a railway through Zuunbayan. It remains very much an idea at present. However, it has been estimated that transportation costs from Tavan Tolgoi to Tianjin would be USD55 per tonne if the coking coal goes via Zamiin-Uud, and USD44 if it goes via Gashuun Sukhait. A difference of USD10 per tonne is considerable in a competitive market.
World Bank experts have studied other routes also. Carrying costs to the northern border through Choibalsan would be USD81 per tonne which makes it a non-starter unless there is a possibility of substantial exports to Japan and South Korea.
I have mentioned three possible routes to transport Tavan Tolgoi coking coal. The Russians are very interested in two of them and the other one, through Gashuun Sukhait, is favoured by EBRD and the Deutsche Bank Consortium. Some preliminary investment has also been made on the project.
China has its own preference. It would like to connect Nariin Sukhait and Shivee Khuren border ports of Mongolia to the Linhen railway in China, seeing it as a promising supply route to meet the energy demands of its central and northwestern regions. Steel production in China is gradually moving away from the densely populated central regions to the northern regions. China has started closing down coal mines producing less than 900,000 tonnes per year, as much on environmental grounds as to promote consolidation of production facilities.
The broad details have been taken care of and now we have to decide on the finer details of how to transform coal into national wealth. We have to remove our political blinkers and be guided by sound economic principles. Individuals and countries should not be allowed to matter in ascertaining our national interests. We must not squander our ancestral inheritance. Prudence and wisdom should mark our path to a prosperous future. It is going to be a long hot summer for those charged by the nation with taking the right decisions on big issues.
AUGUST 2009
A new phase has begun in the relationship between Mongolia and those who invest here, particularly foreigners. Historically this can be seen as the third phase in an ongoing process where economics has often been subservient to politics. The first phase saw Mongolia mostly begging, with palms together, for what was always described as “aid“ from the then Soviet Union. Life in Mongolia was based on subsidies from the USSR, and the term “investment“ was hardly ever used, as it smelt of capitalist investment and exploitation.
Mongolians heard the word “grant“ for the first time when they took the plunge into the uncharted sea of the market economy. It took them a while to understand that it was a euphemism, a sugar-coated alternative to “subsidy and aid“. The last decade of the last century – Mongolia’s first as a fumbling democracy – was replete with “grants“ for the country and its people. These were basically investments and we learnt that in the international lexicon of economic relations, an investor was one who gives a donation and is most likely director of a charity fund.
As market principles and Mongolia became cosier with each other our idea of the investor gradually took new shape. This I see as the second phase of the relationship, when we accepted that investors were entitled to preferential treatment and pulled out all the stops to offer favourable conditions for them to park their money here. Soft loans were made available to them and the tax environment was made friendly and inviting.
A special aid program implemented in Mongolia by the Japanese Government recently finished its initial term. Discussions are on progress on new guidelines for the next stage of the program. These are expected to reflect new insights along with a newly acquired understanding of how to work with investors and donors, for the most benefit to both parties. This adoption of the guiding principle of “Equal relations and cooperation“ when dealing with investors marks Mongolia’s entry into the third phase.
Details are still somewhat hazy but the parameters of the new phase have been put in place. There is clear indication that there would not be any further tax incentives, including preferential conditions and outright exemption. This was the clear message sent out by the Spring session of Parliament. Some semblance of order is being imposed on the haphazard and indiscriminate grant of licences, with small businesses holding uranium licences forced off the stage. The necessary legal environment has been created to facilitate this. A new law prohibiting mining operation near water sources and forest areas has also been passed, with haste after some initial uncertainty.
It is not that only small fry are being targeted in the new policy. Parliament was overwhelmingly in favour of revoking all tax preferences to investment in the Oyu Tolgoimines. MPs also voted to impose restrictions on the generous refund to mining companies of VAT they pay on production of their exported output. The principle the Government and Parliament have been trying to lay down in the last six months is one of “Cooperation with investors within the law“.
As we ponder the possible changes in the investment environment, we must curb the impulse to be judgemental. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and whether the swing is wrong or right or whether it is sustainable can be assessed only after its effects are felt over a period of time. Mongolian society must not be polarised on the decisions made by its accredited representatives in Parliament. A tax system beneficial to both investors and the Mongolian state is a prerequisite to national development and is the quintessence of an equitable relationship. The goal is a golden mean which will help in the convergence of interests. Cooperation, and not confrontation, is what is needed and for this both sides have to settle on priorities that are not contradictory.
The weeks that have just passed have been marked by debates and the weeks that lie ahead will doubtless see more of them. That is the hallmark of a maturing democracy. The heat of a summer day is usually ended by soothing drops of rain. We hope acrimony and differences will similarly be resolved by good sense and sweet reason.